28 mar 2016 0 comentário

The trade balance is definitely turned into starlet in the wailing wall of the Brazilian economy. We had the largest surplus for the month of February since the historical series was initiated in 1989 and can now be celebrated by its positive aspects. Imports continued on a downward trend, reflecting the level of activity and the exchange rate adjustment, but exports recorded growth for the first time in 17 months when compared to the same period last year.

The deficit of US $ 2.840 billion recorded in February 2015 was reversed and turned a surplus of US $ 3.043 billion last month. In the year, the balance hillside at $ 4 billion.

The most celebrated was given the resumption of export growth, which did not occur on an annual basis since August 2014, when the high had been only modest 0.1%. In February, shipments of Brazilian products had expansion of 4.6%. Best of all is that this increase was driven by the performance of manufactured goods.

“After some time in a more competitive exchange rate, and repeated statements of the business on the efforts to expand its exports and promote import substitution of certain raw materials or finished products, such developments may mean any indication turnaround, “said the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development (Iedi), a report on the trade balance.

The surplus of $ 3 billion, the largest of the series for the month came above the market expectation of US $ 2 billion, as highlighted note Rosenberg Associates. The performance of exports in the month surprised consultant who came to put an upward bias in the positive balance of projected $ 40 billion this year. The forecast of the Ministry of Development, made in December and still maintained, is $ 35 billion surplus.

Rafael Bistafa, economist Rosenberg, says it is necessary to observe the behavior of exports in the coming months, mainly to Argentina, great destination of Brazilian manufactured goods. “We will monitor how the country goes to the new president,” said Bistafa, referring to Mauricio Macri.

Director of Statistics and export support of the ministry, Herlon Brandão, drew attention to the performance of the automotive industry. They were shipped 51,000 units of cars, light commercial vehicles, buses and trucks in February. This represents an increase of 85% over the same month last year. Sales to Argentina and Mexico have more than doubled in the first quarter.

Manufactured sales as a whole increased by 7.9%. Its share in total exports rose from 40.3% to 41.5% in the last 12 months. Agricultural goods also made an important contribution to the result. In February, with the harvest still at the beginning, there were shipments of two million tons of soybeans and five million tons of corn. “It’s not much when compared to the peak of the season, but is a great performance for this time of year,” said Brandão.

Imports fell by 34.6% in the daily average and closed the month of February at US $ 10.305 billion. There was decrease of 26.9% in imported quantities and 10.6% in prices. There was a $ 1 billion economy, for example, with the purchase of oil and oil products.

Bistafa, of Rosenberg, is concerned the rapid pace of decline in imports. “The indicators have been worse than expected and it shows that perhaps the slowdown in domestic activity has not reached the bottom,” he added. Over 12 months, the surplus balance advanced to $ 29, 7 billion.

Daniel Rittner and Marta Watanabe – Valor Econômico

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